Monday, 21 September 2009

It's Over...

George Monbiot in the Guardian

Professor Latif suggested that the long-term warming trend could be masked - perhaps for as long as 10 or 20 years - by a temporary cooling caused by natural fluctuations in currents and temperatures called the North Atlantic oscillation. "Thereafter," he told the Today programme, "temperatures will pick up again and continue to warm."


We know that the world's climate system is a noisy one, in which natural variations of all kinds jostle constantly with the man-made warming signal. No one ever proposed that the global warming trend would be a smooth one, in which temperatures move up a notch every year. What we have seen so far are minor fluctuations weaving around a solid long-term trend.

OK, natural variations affect global temperatures as well as man-made global warming. Let's explore this a little...

What this seems to be saying is that 20 years ago, they didn't predict the natural events that are causing temperatures to fall now (there was no mention of it at the time), but that we can say now that natural events which will stop global warming will last for only 10-20 years?

Sounds a bit desperate, doesn't it? And you know that when temperatures go back up in 5 years that there will be another model to match that.

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